College Enrollment Trends: Clearing Up The Confusion

If you heard enrollment was declining, we’re here to set the record straight – it’s actually increasing. What was behind these false reports? They actually came from a credible source.

Last October, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSC) released a preliminary “Stay Informed” enrollment report, claiming a 5% drop in first-year college enrollments, the largest since the COVID-19 pandemic. This came as a huge shock to most because most thought that the education sector was finally moving past the slump in enrollments caused by the pandemic.

The findings actually stemmed from a methodological error, and as it turns out, first-year enrollments actually increased.

The error was not to be taken lightly either. The NSC enrollment reports are highly-respected and widely-used by higher education, policymakers, institutional leaders, and media outlets.

METHODOLOGICAL ERROR IN NSC REPORT SPARKED CONTROVERSY

The mistake stemmed from wrongly labeled incoming first-year students, who were counted as dual-enrolled high schoolers, which inflated the reported 7.2% dual enrollment rise. The mistake also affected a special report on 18-year-old enrollment and FAFSA completion with the National College Attainment Network.

It turns out the error wasn’t just one of this year, but has been present in all “Stay Informed” reports since 2020. The NSC uncovered it when preparing their upcoming Current Term Enrollment Estimates Report, which highlighted the discrepancy.

While the Education Department had flagged potential issues in October, noting a 5% increase in federal aid recipients, the correction came as a shock to many. This mistake could threaten NSC’s future credibility and has also raised concerns about the reliability of their past data.

“The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center acknowledges the importance and significance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community,” commented Doug Shapiro, NSC’s Executive Director. “We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent such occurrences in the future.”

© Copyright 2025 Poets & Quants. All rights reserved. This article may not be republished, rewritten or otherwise distributed without written permission. To reprint or license this article or any content from Poets & Quants, please submit your request HERE.