Kenan-Flagler’s new Bell Hall – courtesy photo
Ever wondered how governments decide where to invest their money? Usually, before allocating money, they consider things like Which industries need more workers? and, Is this local economy growing or slowing down? This economic forecasting is incredibly important for decision-makers.
This week, the University of North Carolina took a major step toward improving predictions after the North Carolina General Assembly approved $3 million to launch the North Carolina Economic Forecasting Initiative (NCEFI). This initiative is a new statewide forecasting hub housed in the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise at UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School. This will be instrumental for students – as well as policymakers, businesses, and communities – who will all have access to timely economic insights.
Instead of waiting months for reports, the hub will produce near real-time insights on North Carolina’s economy through what’s known as a “nowcast.” Alongside longer-term forecasts, it will track state and county employment, gross domestic product (GDP), and housing affordability.
A CLASSROOM CONNECTED TO THE ECONOMY
For business students, this initiative shows how important data is in today’s business world. The Kenan Institute has spent more than four decades researching markets, entrepreneurship, and economic growth, and this initiative enhances its ability to put that expertise to work in a practical way.
If this project has a familiar feel, it might be because the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School does something similar. Their Penn Wharton Budget Model has become one of the country’s best-known examples of using sophisticated economic modeling to evaluate public policy and forecast the long-term effects of government decisions.
Both initiatives use sophisticated data modeling to help leaders make smarter, evidence-based decisions. The key difference is their focus. Wharton’s model primarily analyzes national policies, estimating how proposed federal tax, spending, and budget changes could affect the U.S. economy over time. UNC’s new initiative, by contrast, is built specifically for North Carolina.
Rather than evaluating federal legislation, it will provide local forecasts on issues like employment, housing affordability, workforce needs, and county-level economic trends, giving communities data that’s tailored to the challenges they face.
As AI and advanced analytics continue reshaping business, projects like the North Carolina Economic Forecasting Initiative shows how data is moving from the classroom into the real world. Today’s business leaders should know how to interpret data, recognize trends, and make decisions based on evidence. UNC’s newest initiative is designed to do exactly that, giving public officials, employers, and communities the information they need to plan ahead.
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